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Ray Kurzweil (USA) at Ci2019 - The Future of Intelligence, Artificial and Natural

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Host Create clip so we're so deeply grateful that Ray's doing this for us. We first met Ray in 2013 when he attended Creative Innovation 2013 and he blew all our minds in over the years were stayed in touch, and I've been very fortunate to spend a lot of time with him and also attend the executive program at Singularity University, which are highly recommend. He's an incredibly special person. I think you all know his mind is extraordinary. He's created this talk today for us. It's brand new. No one in the world has seen it before, so I'm just gonna read you. His Introduction records file is one of the world's leading inventors, thinkers and futures with the 30 year track record of accurate predictions called The Restless Genius by The Wall Street Journal and The Ultimate Thinking Machine by Forbes magazine, he was selected as one of the top entrepreneurs by Inc magazine, which described him as the rightful heir to Thomas Edison. Habeas selected him as one of the six Dane revolutionaries who made America. Ray was the principal inventor of the first CCD flatbed scanner, the first Omni font optical character recognition, the first printer speech reading machine for the Blind, the first text to speech synthesizer, the first music synthesizer capable of recreating the grand piano and other orchestral instruments, and the first commercially marketed large vocabulary. Speech recognition.

Host Create clip Amazing, isn't it? Among raise many honors, he received a Grammy Award for outstanding achievements in music technology. He's the recipient of the National Medal of Technology, was inducted into the National Inventors Hall of Fame. Holds 21 honorary doctorates and honest from three year U. S. Presidents Ray has written five national best selling books, including New York Times Bestsellers, The Singularity Is Near Region in 2005 and How to Create a Mind in 2012. He's co founder and chancellor of Singularity University on a director of engineering at Google. Hitting up a Tame developed him developing machine Intelligence and natural language Understanding. Ladies and gentlemen, please give a huge, enormous creative innovation. Welcome to Ray Kurtz, vile

Host Create clip Well, it's great to be with you. I spend a lot of time talking to different people around the world. And if I want someone who can really give me an insight into the future, uh, I go to Tanya in Australia uh, because she has, uh, really compatible vision that I have for what the future will bring. And so I'd like to talk about the future. That's something I've actually done for almost 40 years. Uh, and I'd like to actually give you an idea why my predictions generally seem to be accurate if you go to how my predictions are faring. If you put in how my predictions are faring on the web, it will bring up 150 page document that goes through, uh, the predictions I've made in a different times over the last 20 years. So, for example, I made 147 predictions, uh, for 2009 in the late 19 nineties, and 86% of them were correct on they were recorded in the age of spiritual machines. And I can explain why that is.

Host Create clip So these are my predictions for the next 25 years. Uh, any questions on any of this? Okay, I'll go through it a little more slowly. So most of my predictions, uh, when I make them seemed a likely you're impossible now. They just seem to be correct. People ignore the exponential nature of technological change, so their long term predictions leave out the essence of change. People point out the fact that exponential changes not go on forever. So you exponential. It eventually comes to an SM tote, however, so that's an S curve. However, we've seen that one s curve leads to another Esseker, and this has happened already four times of computation. We're already on the six paradigm, which is three dimensional growth of transistors. If you leave out the exponential, 30 changes gets you to 30. And that's why people in the long term the vow, it's, uh, the usability of change. 30. Doubling Sze in an exponential gets you to a 1,000,000,000. That's what we've seen with electronics, and we'll see it soon with every other bride.

Host Create clip So this is where it started in the 19 eighties. I realize the timing was critical to being an adventure. Thomas Page, Larry uh, Thomas Edison, Larry Page, other inventors you've heard about we're in the right place with the right idea at the right time. Timing was critical for everything from making investments to romance. So I noted the speed of these processors. That is calculations per second per constant dollar For all the computer processors up to that year, you see going back to the early 20th century, the data forms of straight line on an exponential chart and the straight line and an exponential chart is exponential growth. I know that this chart is not Moore's law. People look at this on Moore's law, but this has to do with technologies. Before Moore's law came into being, Moore's law has to do with chips, not with these 1st 4 paradigms of computation. My own concept of exponential growth was not just limited to chips, but is the basic idea of growth in technology. Even before there was change. Directed by human life, life itself took billions of years, whereas mammalian growth took only hundreds of millions primates to calmly tens of millions of years humanoids took. Only billions of humans took over technology. This path went to technology. The printing press took centuries. Today we have new faces of technology in just a few years.

Host Create clip So I put these computational technologies on a graph, which is this graph and put it sort of on the left and extended it, which has become the basis of my predictions expected future processors to be on this line, but this was done 45 years before these new computational technologies would happen. So what happened 45 years later? This has been the result we go back. This is what I predicted, and this is what actually happened. And this has been the basis of my predictions. Of course, you have to use some technological sophistication to understand what speed will enable what capabilities. But this is the core idea. The speed of the processor for constant dollar is right on the line that I had projected decades earlier. Every other aspect of electronics is receding in the same way. And this is not just because the computational speed is greater is speed of telecommunications. We processed a few characters per minute using Morse code over AM radio a century ago. Today it has multiplied a trillion fold with same cost. No, this is on a computational graph. It's a straight line, so it's exponential growth. The total number of bits shipped each year is basically doubling every year, so we can ship a better product each year for less money.

Host Create clip That's deflation on the order of 50% per year, and it underlies every aspect of our technology, not just bits of memory. Even before we had electron ICS, we had this deflationary process that improved every aspect of life. However, people's understanding is the opposite of the actual progress. People think that things are getting worse when the opposite is the case. This is a poll of 24,000 people in 23 countries. They were asked whether extreme poverty has gotten better or worse over the past 20 years. 70% thought it had gotten worse. Only 12% thought it had gotten better. The reality is that poverty had actually decreased by 50% which was a prediction of only 1% of the people who were spotted. So I have many dozens of fly DS showing progress on every aspect of human well being over the last decades and the last centuries. Let me just share a few of them here. These circles are countries, and this is a state of the world in 1800. So, uh, life expectancy on the Y axis was in the thirties, So life expected Caesar's in the thirties of years, even in the wealthy countries, income per person in today's dollars was in the hundreds of dollars per year shown in today's Allah. So even in the wealthy countries, it was hundreds of dollars that you try to live on in a year.

Host Create clip So let's see what happened over the next century, a little bit of movement from the first technological revolution. Um, but not much is happening until we get to the 20th century, which all of these circles, all of these countries, move to the upper right hand corner of the graph. And while there's still a country gap between richest and poorest, the poorest countries are actually far better off than the richest countries weren't the beginning of this process. So I'll just go through a few of these rates that to find human quality And by the way, people think things are getting worse on every single aspect. They get better by century and better by decade. Uh, including Justin in recent years. Here is literacy rates by country going back to the 15th century US education expenses per capita in constant dollars since 1949. Whenever you see reference to two uh, currency, it's today's dollars, not the dollars there. The number of years of education for different countries since 18 70 electricity and homes for the U. S. And the world since 1900 US and world households with computers from 1984 to present.

Host Create clip So this is life expectancy at birth ended year one a year. One chose life expectancy, with the high rate of death near berth removed. It only adds about seven years ago first so life expectancy in 18 41 was only about 40 years from birth and 47 years of year one. Declining poverty rates worldwide since 18 20 decline in extreme poverty across different areas. This is U S GDP per capita in constant dollars. We're definitely getting richer. This is the average of GDP per person in constant dollars for personal income from 1929. And this is interesting. This is the average income per hour actually earned by each person in the United States in constant dollars since 1929 just goes up. This isn't today's dollars, so we hear a lot of reporting that, uh, average income per hour has stabilized. It's not going up, but that's obviously not the case. A work week has gone down it shot up slightly after the Great Depression, but its continued to go down since then. This is one consequence of increased automation. I'll come back to increased automation in a moment decline of child labor in the world since 2000. So obviously any child labor is not desirable on the fact that it's grated zeros positive. I'm not saying everything is perfect, but everything is moving in the right direction.

Host Create clip Homicide rates in Western Europe Since 1300 I won 11 1300. We have an exponential growth of renewable imaging. It's stuff that this is renewable energy that will replace fossil fields. Uh, it's it's increasing is actually increasing at an exponential rate. It's doubling every four years, so it should reach 100% by the early 20 thirties. The growth rate for solar energy is even higher. Oh, and by the way, when we reach, 100% will only be using one part in 10,000 of all the sunlight that hits the Earth. So it's not like we're going up and we're hitting 90% rating. One part in 10,000. It's another important issue spread of democracy. Uh, it was very small uh, maybe a century ago really began with the good bird printing press beginning to distribute information to people continued through the 20th century with radio, TV and computers. It's now up to 50% can. It's not perfect. We'd like it to be 100% but it's definitely moving in the right direction. So this is really a comment employments and what's gonna happen to employment. So if I were back in 1800 I would point out that 80% of the workforce in 1800 worked with farm labor.

Host Create clip So if you were working at all in 1800 you're doing something that farm labor. That's now 2% today and you can see it's just calm down to about 2%. We've had a similar trend, with manufacturing labor going from 25% in 1920 to 9% today. Yet overall labor has gone from 26 million in 1900 over 140 million today. So despite the fact that these basically the type of employment that everybody had went from 80% to 2% we've actually increased the amount of labor from 26,000,240 million, from 31% of the workforce to 44% of the population. Today, 65% of American workers deal with information and jobs that would not be recognizable in 1900 for example, Web designer, half developer I t engineer. And so, if I were to say at the end of the 19th century that 20 million people would be studying poetry and quantum mechanics are the beginning of the 21st century, that would seem absurd to a country that had only 65,000 college students in 18 70. It's the same thing in Australia, If that is what happened to Twitter. With 20 million college students today, comparable amount in Australia plus another 10 million who serviced them will begin to create new jobs. And we cannot imagine today and also create new forms of being productive Is college students studying poetry and quantum mechanics are considered today? Now, I mentioned we've seen great deflation that electronics and related products, and that's certainly true of your phone. If you imagine what a phone was like eight years ago, it's much more expensive and did very little, Uh, but we haven't well. We have seen that in many areas of not electronic products. But over the next decade, we're going to see deflationary trends not just electronics, but in commodities like food with a I controlled vertical agriculture has seen here.

Host Create clip We'll see deflation and building costs and routine products is three D printing become prevalent. Deflation and energy is renewable. Energy sources become the norm and deflation and food production with vertical agriculture producing food products. Now imagine what this will mean because we have already a gross domestic product. Uh, that's really part of our welfare. This is the gross domestic product for different countries. Uh, in the United States are kisses percentage of GDP, every jeebies actually greater. So we actually spend more then, uh, some of the socialist countries in Europe. It's the same thing with Australia pretty much keeps track with the United States as prices for food and other necessities of life come down. This will be enough for most people's lifes needs. By the 20 thirties. It's not quite there yet. I mean, if you have to live on this kind of welfare, it's, uh, you could manage. It was much later. There was a century ago But, uh, it actually will be very, uh, very. Huh? Um, enough for most people's lifes. Needs to get to the 20 thirties and certainly by the end of the 20 thirties, his expanded Cher's for the U. S. Totals. Social safety net spending.

Host Create clip So I started out almost zero. It's gone up steadily. It just goes up in the percentage of GDP also rises with it. I think you'd have a hard time finding a period that represents left Tween social spending versus right wing conservatism here. I mean, try to find where you see that basically just goes up. The rial inflationary deflationary trend, which is hidden, is extreme deflation of all products caused by the deflation of electronics. So this amount of social safety net even ignoring future increases which will happen will be enough for most people to look quite well in the 20 thirties. Uh, this would be a whole lecture. In fact, I do have a whole lecture on it, But the deflation and D n a sequencing cause has enabled biotechnology, and that's what really brought by a technology hot before decoding the first general cost a $1,000,000,000. Now it costs about $1000 we're finding genetic changes that overcome the burdens of biology, for example, immuno therapy for cancer, and this is now being used at an increasing amount immunotherapy for cancers where patients blood cells are treated outside of the body.

Host Create clip They're re injected into the patient and then light up that person's own immune system to fight their specific type of cancer. This is personalized Medicine is far less invasive than traditional treatments, and provides provides far more promise for patient safety. They have been a number of tests where every single person, including stage for cancers, have obtained complete remissions. And there's a lot more to come from biotechnology over the next decade. So moving to the brain, our ability to image the brain both destructive and non destructive brain imaging is constantly getting better. We can now see individual nerve sounds forming in real time with non destructive imaging. As a result, we're able to form a realistic idea of how our brains work, and I described this in my last book, How to Create a Mind. At first it was thought that the interconnections of I want to create a connection from this X onto this dendrite was a huge mess, but we were not scanning it with enough resolution is too low now. They were scanning it with high resolution. What we see is that all accents are already connected with other axe ons and when to accents want to remain connected. The interconnections air made per minute.

Host Create clip Now I talked a lot about the neo cortex. The neocortex is something that came with my men. Mammalian animals 200 million years ago started with mice on the neocortex has gotten more sophisticated. A CZ we've gotten through the past 200 million years. In fact, we had 65 million years ago the quotations extinction event. Uh, suddenly we think it has to do with, uh, meteor. Uh, the dinosaurs died then on. And, um, that's when human neocortex became prominent from my millions. And then my millions crew larger, their brains grew bigger on. They became really dominant in terms of intelligent life on earth. Neocortex is the outermost layer of the brain. It's them essentially a two dimensional structure. It's about as thick as a napkin with intricate folds with deep roots ridges, grooves, wrinkles and increase its surface area to be the bulk of the human brain. It's responsible for our ability to deal with patterns of information in the hierarchical fashion. So their levels of the neocortex there, many dozens of them. And as you go up, the all the levels, actually, because processing simultaneously as you go up through the different levels, each level add some concept. It's too what we're perceiving. So here you can see the different levels, ad and understanding of what words were doing on the page. If you two go up another 20 levels, you'd have accents that decide whether this passage is ironic or funny or deceitful.

Host Create clip So this is actually ah, young girl. She was 16. She was actually having brain surgery, and the surgeons wanted her to be conscious and react to her experience. So whenever they had touched the accents here shown in red, she would laugh. They first thought she's having some laugh reflex, but they quickly discovered that no, she was actually perceiving humor. Only when they touch these points and touch the points that detective you over and she found everything hilarious. You guys are so funny just standing around. What's a typical comment They had found the points that actually detect humor. And this has been done in other experiments with other high level Exxon's, such as detecting irony. For example. Now this is a simple neural net. It's organized as a single level. It emerged in the 19 sixties. In 1962 when I was 14 I visited Dr Rosenblatt at Cornell. Hey was pushing something called the Perceptron. It was really the first neural net that got attention, and it was a computer model that could recognize shapes. So could recognize written letters, figure out the vowels for a sound of learned certain types of concepts.

Host Create clip So I came to Cornell 1962 with various letter shapes, and I would hold up the letter shapes, uh, to the, uh, the visual perception box of the present Rahm. And it worked on a few, But most did not work, he said to me. And this is actually quite significant. If we were to create a Perceptron with multiple layers, not just one, it would overcome the vagaries that a Perceptron could not deal with. So I also had a mentor. In my tea 1969 he wrote a book called Perceptron Sze with Seymour Papert, and it proved that a Perceptron could not solve something called the connected in this problem. Basically, if you have a shape that's all connected, that's connected. If you have a shape, that's let's say something here and something here that's not connected. Really simple problem. And he proved that a Perceptron could not, uh, solve whether or not a shape was connected enough. The book was so successful that all funding for connectedness was cut for the next 25 years.

Host Create clip However, the fair, um, really only proved that a single level Perceptron could not solve the problem, and he actually regretted this multilevel Perceptron ZX could do that and everybody was using multi level. Perceptron is by the time you got to, uh, a century shortly before he died a few years ago, and this is 50 years after these interactions, he acknowledged. Minsky acknowledged that the neural nets were indeed a very promising road ahead, and indeed that is the primary road that they were following Now. Rosenblat's concept was indeed very prescient because he had never done a multilevel, uh, Perceptron before. And yet he figured out that this would actually solve the problem and that not only would it sell the problem, but it would ultimately sell problems that humans are unable to do. So it's now 60 years after the introduction of the Perceptron. It's only recently I mean, like the last couple of years, that we have now achieved a computational density that could support neural nets for a human level ability. But it actually goes way past human levels.

Host Create clip This graph it looks like my other graph. It goes up over time, but it's, uh, it's not. The doubling time is not one year the doubling time. Here's 3.5 months. This is where we take a neural net model and see how much computational ability is required to do that. And we've basically been doubling the amount of computation in the neural net every 3.5 months. So's the speed has increased 300,000 fold since 2012 so consider Alfred zero. This came a little over a year ago from Deep Minds, Google subsidiary. It taught itself go with only the go rules. It was not given any moves by humans. It's performance his way past the best you've you take the very best humans can't be close to Alfred zero. But that's not the most significant thing about Alphas here. We've had other times. 1997 We had, uh, an IBM computer that defeated the best co player, the best chess player. But But that computer could only do that, and every other computer that's won a game has only been devoted to that one type of game here. The very same neural net when given the rules of chess, went way past every human with only a few hours of training and also every other chess machine. It's also done a number of other things.

Host Create clip Now you might think that it can only do board games, but actually you can actually do really just about anything. It was asked, the master protein folding that that's not a board game. Uh, in biology, we have all these cells. The cells put out a chain of amino acids and they're in a straight line. In a magic moment of biology. This linear sequence of immuno acids folds up into a unique three dimensional shape. So this is a key thing in biology and to try to predict what that three dimensional shape would be is very, very demanding. A few people have learned it. This very same neural net that learned go and learn chess and learned other things toward itself. Protein folding. It was way ahead of the best humans that predicting protein folding the best humans got three shapes predicted out of 99. Alfa zero got 43 out of 99. Uh, so this actually will be extremely valuable in creating new proteins for medications. What is clear from thes examples is that a neural net can master concepts. If you have the latest neural nets, that's the result of 60 years of off increasing computation.

Host Create clip It's far greater than the very best human. So if we have a comparison showing, let's say how one shape, let's say, a radiology exam, this poor traders of diagnosis. And if we have millions of examples of that, uh, which we do, uh, it's ah, can master that far better than any human. In fact, everything that humans could do is explained by these types of examples. Some will require some navigation to find because they're not always written down. Might have actually, uh, monitor the world to find what those things are. But over the next few years, we'll have these nets explore everything intelligent that humans can do. And even if we learn ideas from other humans and this no text to guide, this response will be able to track that information as well. Eyes also making progress in natural Language. If you have Gmail, you'll notice that it provides an intelligent response, giving three choices for your next email. Uh, that choice is actually provided by my team a kugel.

Host Create clip We've also put the same capability in something called Talk to Books. So if you go toe Google and just put in talk to boats, you'll get the link, and then you go to that length and you can ask any question you want and the software will read. All of 120,000 books actually reads all of 120,000 bucks him second, it's 1/2 a 1,000,000,000 sentences and in a second gives you the best answer from 120,000 books, based on the meaning of your question and the responses, and so you can try that out. There are tests where you can read a paragraph, and then the answer questions about your understanding of the paragraph. You're probably taken this. It's been in grade school. About six years ago, air computers were challenging the third grade test. Today, they're exceeding the average adult score of the adult test. I believe that in 2029 that's another 10 years, and we already have these types of models that could do this. Hey, I will pass the Turing test. With the increasing computation and increasing mastery of every human skill, we'll have both the Turing test. I can master human responses, which is what the Turing test is about, as well as an aye aye, that could master every human skill in every define double area going way past humans.

Host Create clip So what happens then? People's imagination imply that it will be humans versus a eyes. We see that in dystopian movies of the future, but that is not how we've used technology thus far. We've used it to amplify our own capabilities. For example, try building the building that you're in, uh, be very hard to do with your bare muscles, but we have machines that go way past our muscles. So with those machines were able to build a great structure. Um, now we will use the increasing strength of nonbiological thinking to extend our own thinking. Well, actually, do this today with devices, but the's will eventually go inside our heads. So my scenario is that at the top level of our neocortex will extend, we will connect with extenders and access the Web. I mentioned that there are multiple layers of the neocortex, but that the players are not like this. They're actually like a pyramid in the very top level. Uh, increases, uh, detects the things that are most sophisticated, like irony and humor and so on.

Host Create clip That's the level that we want to extend to add new concepts. Um, so it's the top layer that needs to be extended. We would then have a combination of our natural intelligence with the super normal intelligence and we're creating. So this is in the 20 thirties, already more intelligent than we were before we had a rain. Extent is, that's today. We already have. All of you have the knowledge at our fingertips as we get into the 20 thirties, will proceed at an ultra fast pace of extending our capabilities. So I've thought about how can I present these ideas in a way that will resonates with everyone? Young and old? Uh so I thought about a compelling story of a young person who uses her intelligence and accelerating technologies to take on the most difficult problems confronting the human race. So, Danielle, it's the name of my character. She's a remarkable character who does what every talented, ambitious person wants to dio. She takes action and changes the world for the better. In my view, this novel, which I'm actually are releasing in two weeks, is a thought experiment as to what would happen if they were Danielle in the world.

Host Create clip So this is the debt, the novel, and it has the novel in it, but it also has a couple of other things. Um, it's more than a work of fiction. It's a vision. Hell. History. A road map for readers of all ages includes the ideas that I've articulated at the beginning of my lecture, but also a lot more in literary. First novel actually comes with two companion nonfiction books also written by me, and those nonfiction books are actually on the Web. If you go to Danielle world dot com, Danielle World not come. You'll find the entire to nonfiction books available there, but, uh, they're also in this book. One is called How You Could Be a Danielle and this book. They're pretty heavy. Um, it's a chronicle of ideas, which is 280 essays on the ideas in the book, So a chronicle of ideas. It's a nonfiction guide to the scientific, technological, medical, entrepreneurial, political, historical, literary, musical, philosophical and psychological ideas that animate the world of Danielle.

Host Create clip The entries are for provocative insights into my inspiration and thinking. Universe ideas, from string theory to Jimi Hendrix to Alice in Wonderland and the nonfiction books also includes How You Could Be a Danielle, which provides pragmatic, thought provoking, clear ideas to action on how readers can be like Danielle and help bring about a better world. And the novel includes 24 color illustrations by New Yorker cartoonist and My Daughter, a maker's While it's one for each year of her life, and here Danielle shows who sister her book at age one. She's not yet speaking, but she will speak, and my idea is actually for everyone to become Danielle's to read the book to read how you could be a Danielle and it's in one way or another. Help bring about a better world for everybody else. Thank you very much.

Host Create clip Thank you. Right. Thank you very much. Michael. Pope, I'm being am saying this conference and I last 10. You to join me as well. Thank you so much for for presenting that first thing just for clarification. Are you coming from your studio in Boston or Alpha Centauri? Just not sure exactly where you are.

Host Create clip We're, uh, outside Boston. Yeah,

Host Create clip right. Cool. Um, Tanya, Uh, would you like to start? Yeah. Thank you so much, Ray. It's lovely to see you. And have you here on dumb? I wanted to the first question, actually. So I've actually read Danielle on for any of you that have have daughters and sons. Indeed, is not just a book for for girls. Is that right? It's

Host Create clip not just for girls on. It's not just for boys. It's also for grown ups. I'd say it's from maybe 10 to 110. Um, and we have actually had people at those different ages reading it.

Host Create clip Can I Can I ask you? You said to 110. Are we going to live to 110 as a standard, or or even longer? We're gonna live forever, right?

Host Create clip Well, we're addressing the things that cut short are liars. Uh, there's about seven things I could point out that, uh, limit our lives to, like, 100 and 20. Not that we actually get that far. Uh, but all of those are actually addressable. We're actually, uh, dressing things like cancer and heart disease before we get to that, Um, and we're gonna ultimately passer ideas onto non biological intelligence, which will work with us so we'll actually be able to back themselves up. Did you go further and further in time? Uh, we'll be able to live, uh, really longer and longer. Um, so I wouldn't say it's forever, but, uh, it might seem that way. But then people say, Well, probably gonna get bored if we live that long. We're doing the same things over and over again, and I actually think that's true. We would get bored if we lived a very long time. If we had radical life expansion without radical life extension, Uh, so we're gonna be doing things like virtual reality is the previous speaker just spoke about on a lot of other things that will enhance our minds.

Host Create clip Right now, we have about 10 of the 14th calculations per second in our brain was actually gonna expand that. So we're gonna live a much more enhanced life. A cz well, as extended life.

Host Create clip So just, um, just going back to the Daniel book for a moment. So hardly recommend this book like, I am racing it to me. And I just read it over summer, and it was captivating, page turning and just so inspirational. My gosh, if our young people could be Daniels, who might Who knows what might be possible, or any of us, for that matter. So right, my question is, do you think Do you think our public education system creates Danielle's? And if not, what kind of education system is needed to encourage girls and boys to imply their creative intelligence to solve problems on what skills do do? Do all of us have to learn if we're if we're going manage this accelerating exponential future?

Host Create clip Yeah, well, I mean, I think we need to learn by doing on. That's actually something that then yellow follows impact the school she's in. She gets a little assignment. Like when she's 11 to go solve the Palestinian Israeli. The Israeli Palestinian problem. Uh, she does, uh, didn't make it. Jo. It's an A minus in the course. Um, so ah, we may not want to assign that necessarily, But we do want to assign really meaningful work where people can actually change the world. Uh, and that's not been the philosophy. Now that's changing. My grandson is actually in a school that practices learn by doing, and they do different projects where they will learn how to read and two different things in the real world. Um, and I think most of the problems that can be solved can be solved by ordinary people, including Children. Uh, you know, the major companies we've seen have been founded by college students. We're now seeing high school students do fantastic things, including new medical tests. Uh, that could be done by junior high school students as a form of this for elementary school.

Host Create clip Uh, well, you actually go in the world, interact with it. Uh, you learn other skills, Not it's the nature thing. But as its side product of actually learning how to change the world on. Then the teachers actually becomes kind of a guide inventor to doing that

Host Create clip right. A speaker earlier today spoke about the importance of data, capturing it and then using it, and thank you for filling your presentation with so much starter. And it's fantastic to hear the positivity that you're seeing from that. Can I take into the farm labor slide, where in 1880% were in farm labor and today it's only 2%. We've been talking about the decrease in jobs, that disappearance of jobs. Yes, the emergence of others. But generally the feeling is that fewer individuals will be working as we know it today. How what could we best prepare ourselves for that transition?

Host Create clip Well, there's two reasons, uh, oneness. We we keep creating new jobs, and it's very hard, and it's actually a political disadvantage because we can't really speak about these jobs because I haven't even been invented yet in there in a field that doesn't exist yet, And that's across what we've seen over the last two centuries, and that's gonna continue to happen at the same time. Uh, the amount of money we're spending on social Safety net. Uh, today. I mean, you can kind of get by, but it's not really very, uh, pleasant way to live. Um, by the 20 thirties, the deflation for products that are not electronic, like food and on housing and so on is going to come down for because of these same, uh, factors that are influencing everything else. Uh, even without any further increases, I will be able to live quite well of the center of the same money we spend now. So it's not really increasing the amount of social safety net to do this.

Host Create clip So it's gonna become less important in terms of being able to maintain a a comfortable way of life. Uh, to do this, ultimately, it'll actually be very easy. For God's sake, 2040

Host Create clip right? Sorry, I'm mesmerized. And I thought you could You would continue Forgive me for that port? Well, no, just, um, following on from that race. So And and you and I have discussed this before so that there's going to be less pressure, I guess, to learn as much money because prices are going to come down. So so What? What do you feel is going to give us meaning and purpose in this new future be given that work is such a great gives people such a great sense of meaning and purpose, mostly these days.

Host Create clip Well, yes and no. Uh, in we get a tremendous amount of I mean, if you publish a book, you want people to read it. You want people to appreciate the ideas. That's not just a financial perspective. That's something that comes from the heart that you want to connect with people. People have different ways in which they appreciate, uh, knowledge. Music, for example, is something that is meaningful because you play. It s so it's not just, uh, earning a living. In fact, most people generally get pleasure beyond just ending a living. And so to take that out of it, I think, actually gives us more freedom flexibility.

Host Create clip I uploaded before the idea of data collection, but it's a bit scary. What's going on in China with the the tapping into the social networks and tracking and the eye and face recognition and so on giving people most aerating that then has consequence in their life is that sense off off the all pervasive. Aye, Aye, Future. Where do you see the negatives for that? And is there an area where they the negatives outweigh the

Host Create clip positives? Yeah. I mean, I've been accused of being an optimist. I am somewhat optimistic, but I've written about the downsides of these technologies, and you could use these technologies to enforce, uh, a, uh, totalitarian system or authoritarians system. Um, and we do see that. I mean, I showed democracy is up to 50%. It's not up to 99%. Um, you have to fight that, and I I think that things like, uh, socialization and, uh, other types of activities politics that affect our daily lives is still very important. It's not just that the technology and we could use technology to enforce an authoritarian system. And we do see that in the world. And so we have to keep working on that.

Host Create clip Do you see? There's a growing sense off. There's increasing mental health issues. Suicide rates are higher in the world. Do you see any correlation between a sense of isolation that humans are feeling now? Those who are perhaps removed from the positives off the growth in technology. Can you see a parallel there and how we could work against

Host Create clip those forces? I'm not sure that, uh, suicide is actually increasing, but it is a serious problem. I think it's we go forward, we'll actually have better ideas of how mental illness occurs. Right now, we have very vague psychiatric models of how it occurred. Something goes wrong and when Not really sure why in something to do with serotonin then? But we don't really have a precise, uh, method of actually understanding what happens with melts alone. We are getting the tools now to see inside the brain and with continued research, uh, using these new tools will have a much better idea of what actually goes wrong in that Zillow's will be able to fix it, um, in many cases. So that's that's my view off. How will address this as we go forward? Say another 10 15 years.

Host Create clip So right with witnessed how the Internet has brought us tantalizingly close to the realization of a tree worldwide web. But are we about to say it bang the driver off division rather than unity?

Host Create clip Well, it's so powerful and effects from many aspects of our lives, Uh, that it's bound to get, uh, people criticizing it. Um, we certainly see a lot of things that are wrong, but that certainly with things wrong before we had any Internet, uh, people had many problems without an Internet, and we, um But if you look at people who are using the Internet that use it all the time, they're getting a lot of benefit from it. Um, we have access to whole human knowledge. We can create communities based on, uh, common perception of value across the world. Um, so it is complicated, but, uh, thank you. We gain a lot more benefit than, uh, then then problems that we're generating. Um,

Host Create clip is that is that a torch or shall I continue with the last couple of questions?

Host Create clip Well, uh, going

Host Create clip can you take us away from the focus that we've had for these three days? And that is the human condition. The footprint that we have left on this planet is huge and in many cases, terrible. What's your prediction for the decades ahead? About the animals and plants and the planet on which we live? How How's that health card looking?

Host Create clip Well, I think it will be less dependent on animals. We're ready. Have, uh, where's types of meat that don't require me. But that tastes like me. We're moving, I think, away from reliance on animals, uh, for food. Um, and so I think we'll be able to appreciate the kind of positive quality, uh, that we can do with animals. Um, and we're gonna be going away from fossil fuels. Uh, that's not so far away. I mean, I believe that's 10 years away. Uh, be ableto, uh, is, uh, forms of energy that don't require fossil feels, uh, that'll make the world better for everybody. Um, so I think we'll be able to have a more natural, uh, relationship with animals where we're not really dependent on them for food.

Host Create clip Well, becoming vegetarians flicks, as has been predicted a few times in this conference, Ray. Uh, so big overview. Um, how do you see humanity evolving over this next decade?

Host Create clip Well, that was, uh, really what I talked about. Uh, it may seem startling to connect something into our brain to talk to the web, but it's really just a continuation of what we've been doing. We have devices. I mean, they might as well be part of our body because we never leave home without thumb. And, uh, they are part of our body. We stands, uh, to the weapon connect to all of the world's knowledge on we're being able to interact with that in more and more fluid fashion. Uh, so we'll do it directly from our brains. It's really not, uh, So, uh, uh, such a difficult thing to do and that will then enable us to continue to expand. I mean, the, um the, uh the Web is growing doubling every year, and that's multiplying by 1000 and 10 years. Eso imagine what we're doing today and multiply by 1000 for 2030 and another 1020 40. And imagine what that will mean for our experiences in our ability to do everything that we can do with each other.

Host Create clip Uh, that's what the future is relying. It's not good. Just, uh, uh, settle in. At some point, it's gonna keep expanding indefinitely.

Host Create clip Final question. Right. We spoke earlier this morning about traditional education systems that First World has in particularly focused on universities and adult learning. How do you see that? Transitioning into the

Host Create clip future. I think the university's gonna continue because really, what the university does is is, uh, embodies somebody who's really an expert on certain, uh uh, modality and gets into that and pursues its, uh And we're going to continue to do that with increasing power of tools to expand our our minds. We'll also have the ability ourselves to learn new things. But we'll have certain people that really guide us to pursue each suit. Um, less. Um, that's, uh there's going to be many more types of pursuits that we can pursue. I mean, if you look at the the, uh, uh, types of things of people pursue now they went that didn't exist at all in 1900 or even 1950. And we're gonna keep pursuing increasing forms off new types of development.

Host Create clip Cool. Last question. Tenure? Yes. So why radio I'm in this book, Danielle is is so inspirational. But why do you think educating young women in particular to be entrepreneurs is important?

Host Create clip Well, it really is, uh, for young women and young men like we have movies that show both young women readers and young men readers. Um and I don't know, why? It's a young woman. I mean, nine years ago, I I was trying to find some idea off a young person that would be able to bring these, uh, do these developments. Uh, and she just turned out to be a young woman named Danielle. Oh, hand. But it really is, uh, for young women, young man and an adult. PSAs. Well,

Host Create clip well, thank you very much. Race. There's something else that you would like to say to everybody before we We officially thank you because it's been such an honor to have you here and to have you create this special tool just for creative innovation.

Host Create clip Well, I've been talking about this for 40 years, and it's really only now in the last couple of years, uh, that we actually have, uh, the hard ones offered, actually take on adults activities and a way past them. And not just have one big project that takes on chance things that deal with chest. It's really one thing, and it could be applied to everything, and we really shown it to be applied to a great many different types of things. Um, and it requires a very advanced form of computation, But that's what we have now s So you're gonna see for a fantastic, uh, pursuit of a eye over the next few years.

Host Create clip Well, I thank you very much. Um, from all of us here, um, from our hearts, we thank you for being here with us. It feels nearly like you're here, though I'd much rather give you a really hug than a virtual hug would consider yourself hug on Donald.

Host Create clip Michael, It's been great to be with you.

Host Create clip And will you give Ray a huge thank you very much?